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    The secret forces that could lead to a Trump victory

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    sinister_midget
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    The secret forces that could lead to a Trump victory

    Post  sinister_midget on Sun Oct 30, 2016 1:31 pm

    The secret forces that could lead to a Trump victory

    Driving across the country last week, it seemed hard to believe an American presidential election is happening a week from Tuesday. Few campaign signs sprout from urban lawns; partisan billboards along the highways are scarce. Away from the coasts, the talk on the radio is largely of football and Jesus, not politics. It takes a moment, hearing a spot in North Carolina for a US Senate candidate, to realize the voice belongs to President Obama, interrupting some country music.

    Oh, there’s plenty of chatter about it in the raging echo chambers of talk radio and TV cable news, and in the cocksure journalists’ fun house known as Twitter, where in-the-tank reporters and dispossessed campaign consultants, smarting over their collective defeat in the primaries, smugly assure each other that Donald Trump will lose in a landslide.

    But what if the widely swinging polls, turnout models and forecasting mechanisms are all wrong? What if the unique historical circumstances of this election — pitting the female half of a likely criminal family dynasty against a thin-skinned bull-in-a-china-shop businessman — have invalidated conventional wisdom? What if the ranks of shy voters storm the polls and, in the words of Michael Moore, deliver the biggest rebuke in history to the establishments of both parties?

    What if, far from having a lock on 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. come January, Hillary Clinton’s margin-of-error lead — currently between 4 and 5 points in the RealClearPolitics average of multiple national polls — turns out to be a Potemkin village, dependent on high turnout among blacks and other minorities and on getting late deciders to turn her way?

    What if, in fact, the opposite happens — that Trump’s appeal to the disaffected white working class (many of them Democrats) in coal-mining and Rust Belt states outweighs the Democrats’ traditional advantages in the big cities, flipping a state like Pennsylvania from blue to red?

    Welcome to the hidden election, where those who say they know what’s going to happen don’t, and those who do know will make their voices heard on Nov. 8.

    Nationally, Clinton holds 3.8 points over Trump in a four-way race that also includes Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein. But polls may not be everything this year.

    Indeed, Hillary has suffered a major polling meltdown over the past week or so, hurtling from a 12-point lead to 4 points in the Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll.

    The WikiLeaks revelations about her campaign’s dirty tricks, the pay-to-play nature of the Clinton Foundation, the astonishing personal enrichment of the Clintons via politics and the electrifying news Friday afternoon that the FBI is reopening its investigation into her use of a private e-mail server are finally taking a toll.

    Spurning the poll-based forecasts in favor of historical analysis, professor Helmut Norpoth at SUNY Stony Brook — who’s correctly predicted the last five presidential elections — gives the nod to Trump, 52.5-47.5 percent. Meanwhile, an artificial-intelligence system developed in India that takes into account data from Google, YouTube and social media says Trump’s “engagement data” points to a GOP victory.

    So, if the conventional wisdom is wrong, what’s Trump’s plausible path to 270 electoral votes? In 2012, Mitt Romney won 206 electoral votes to Obama’s 332. But recall that the Electoral College is a zero-sum game; every vote that switches is both a plus and minus, so that’s not quite as big a margin as it might seem.

    Current thinking has it that there are 11 battleground states that could go either way: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. In these states, with a total of 146 votes, the election will be won or lost.

    Throw out the first tier of Colorado (nine electoral votes), Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (10), which are likely to stay blue; in the RealClearPolitics poll averages, Hillary Clinton leads by 6.2 to 8.8 points in this group.

    A second tier would include Iowa (six), Nevada (six), and New Hampshire (four); of this group, Trump currently leads only in Iowa, by 1.4 points. But a win in any one of these could well provide a crucial margin of victory for him after the main battlegrounds of Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20) and Virginia (13).

    Because here’s the good news for Trump: Despite the structural advantages in the Electoral College the Democrats currently enjoy — they start with New York (29), Illinois (20) and California (55) already in their pockets — the truth is that Trump need only retain the states Mitt Romney won in 2012 (including, critically, North Carolina) and then flip these three battleground states: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. That would give him a 273-265 victory.

    Right now, the RCP numbers show Clinton up 0.7 points in Florida, Trump up 1.1 in Ohio, and Clinton up 5 points in Pennsylvania. Still, RCP has just put Pennsylvania into the “toss-up” category, including Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and even Texas. And it’s likely that those four red states will remain true to form, barring a complete Trump collapse in the last week of the campaign.

    RCP is notably biased. Perhaps not on purpose. But they rely on averages of other polls to make their average, and most of those polls are intentionally biased.

    My own reading (just a gut, but based on what I see in the news), is Ohio Trump, Pennsylvania leaning Trump (maybe harder that direction that I get a feel for), North Carolina Trump, Texas Trump (who're they kidding making this one a tossup?) and Florida possibly Trump. I don't have a feel for some of the others.

    The #nevertrump people give themselves a lot of comfort about the chances for Trump to lose. They like to look at Romney's surge and claim that proves Trump can't count on that as a sign. But they're drinking something potent if that's what they fall back on. Yes Romney surged. In the last 5 days of the campaign. Trump has been strong from the beginning. And he's gotten stronger. This isn't a last ditch effort to create some enthusiasm for him. This is enthusiasm that was already there and has grown.

    As for polling, they like to bring up this ABC poll in which Broomhillary dropped from a 12 point lead to 4 points. All that does is show that what I've said about polling all along is true. A candidate doesn't drop 8 points in 2 days unless your polling methods are crooked. That drop reflects (and ABC admits it) a change in the way the polling was done. Primarily a move from being totally inaccurate to one of trying to be slightly less inaccurate (not their description, but the correct interpretation). It's still rigged, just not as blatantly. As I said would happen months ago. That poll is the most glaring, but all of the leftwing-paid polling is doing the same thing to try to appear accurate so people will fall for their lies next time.

    My gut tells me Trump will win this if he - HE, not somebody else trying to destroy him - doesn't do something totally stupid. (Notice I said he'd win. I didn't say anything about it being stolen from him or an attempt to steal it. The attempt is almost guaranteed unless it's a blowout.) At this point he should ignore everything said about him and concentrate on policies and highlighting her weaknesses. In that order. But so many people are committed to slapping the establishment people in both parties it's not going to make a lot of difference if he says something dunderheaded as long as it's nothing too major.






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    sinister_midget
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    Re: The secret forces that could lead to a Trump victory

    Post  sinister_midget on Sun Oct 30, 2016 6:17 pm

    If this is true (a giant "if") then Florida is Trump's to lose:

    Poll: Donald Trump +4 in Florida; Jumps 19 Points Among Cubans

    I question on two counts:


    • it's a poll and I don't trust the numbers on polls
    • it was put out by NYT, possibly to scare Broomhillary supporters into not getting complacent


    We shall see.








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    Re: The secret forces that could lead to a Trump victory

    Post  sinister_midget on Sun Oct 30, 2016 7:14 pm

    Another "who knows" to consider.

    Poll: Over a Third of Likely Voters Less Willing to Back Hillary Clinton After FBI Bombshell

    The first day of polling after the announcement of Hillary Clinton’s reopened FBI case shows that the news could have devastating consequences for her on election day.

    From Fox News:

    A poll released Sunday shows more than 30 percent of likely voters say they are less inclined to support Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton after the FBI announced Friday the agency is reviewing newly-discovered emails potentially related to Clinton’s tenure as secretary of state.

    The ABC/Washington Post tracking poll was conducted from Tuesday to Friday, which means the survey’s 1,781 respondents could only be asked on the final day about the revelations regarding the new emails.

    Still, the poll found 34 percent of the respondents were “less likely” to vote for Clinton and that she now leads Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump by just a single percentage point, 46-to-45 percent, in a four-way White House race, with Election Day on Nov. 8.

    34% of the total after 2/3 were already polled. Interesting.







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